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Prediction for CME (2024-08-08T05:30:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-08-08T05:30Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32646/-1
CME Note: Faint halo CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C3 beginning at approximately 2024-08-08T05:30Z. This event is too faint to confidently track in SOHO LASCO C2 or STEREO A COR2. The source of this CME is an M1.3 class flare from AR 3777 (S05W15) peaking at 2024-08-08T04:41Z as seen in SDO AIA 131. The arrival of the combined front of this CME and 2024-08-08T20:00Z CME is possibly seen around 2024-08-11T12:00Z. The arrival signature is characterized by a gradual increase of solar wind speed to around 510 km/s and rotation of magnetic field components, with Bz eventually reaching -18 nT. ~2024-08-11T12:00Z is likely the start of an interaction region or the sheath between the previous ICME arriving on 2024-08-10 and this CME. 2024-08-12T07:44Z is likely to be the arrival of the flux rope of this CME. Note that there is no shock in this arrival due to the interaction with the previous CME (courtesy of Carlos Peres Alanis, LASSOS team).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-08-11T12:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-11T19:35Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32649/1
Model Inputs:
2024-08-08T05:30:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-4.0, Lat.=1.0, Speed=355.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-08-08T11:31Z
2024-08-08T20:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=1.0, Lat.=2.0, Speed=497.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-08-09T01:53Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-08-11T19:35Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =28.4 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.1
(kp)90=4
(kp)180=6

Other Location(s) Impact:
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-10T16:31Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-11T15:30Z
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-12T12:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240808_113100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 41.83 hour(s)
Difference: -7.58 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M) on 2024-08-09T18:10Z

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